Are We Safer Since the Killing of bin Laden?

According to the last post regarding Americans’ feelings on the death of bin Laden, most feel “relieved" and "proud". However, are we safer now from terrorist attacks than before? What does bin Laden's death mean for Americans?

 

Sebastian Gorka, director of the National Security Fellows Program at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, states in a story for the Washington Times that while terrorism cannot be defeated, it can be suppressed. He notes that since the United States overturned the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, al Qaeda's potential for terrorist attacks have greatly diminished.

According to Gorka, Islamic Jihad's founder al-Zawahiri may become bin Laden's successor. He says that even if al-Zawahiri does become al Qaeda's new leader, the organization will not have the same power as it did in the past, when the group was state sponsored by Sudan in 1993 and supported by the Taliban in 2001.

Joseph Wippl, a 30-year old veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency, says in an article for BU Today that bin Laden's death, "has to have a negative effect on the morale of terrorism." However, he warns that al-Zawahiri and Mullah Muhammed Omar, leader of Afghanistan's Taliban, will be the next terrorist leaders. He says that they will be sought after and captured. BU Today quoted Wippl as saying, "I think in that sense, this is a positive thing."

Andrew Bacevich, former Army colonel, West Point graduate and CAS international relations professor, concedes that bin Laden’s death is of minimal significance. BU today reports that Bacevich believes anti-American feelings in the Islamic world existed long before bin Laden. Although Bacevich states that it's uncertain if countries with recent freedom uprisings in the Middle East against al-Qaeda will rebuild their governments, he states that “al-Qaeda is losing, and may already have lost, the battle for the hearts and minds of the people in that part of the world.”

According to a live Q&A in the 'Conversations' section of the Washington Post online, Juan Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is certain that al-Zawahiri will now be in control of al-Qaeda. However, Zarate believes that "Zawahiri lacks the charisma and recognized likeability and mythology of UBL for the broader Sunni extremist movement." On the other hand, he admits that there is a band of devoted al Qaeda leaders and supporters who intend to attack the US and its allies. He says, "Though al Qaeda will suffer with the loss of Osama bin Laden, this does not mean the group and its membership no longer present a danger." 

Zarate also answers the question on whether the U.S. government is taking extra measures to ensure American safety. "The U.S. government has already begun to take precautionary steps to ensure our defenses are up against possible reprisals.  The State Department has issued warnings to American travelers, it has increased our security posture at Embassies and consulates around the world," says Zarate, "the homeland security and counter-terrorism communities are scouring for any information pointing to an attack."

Matthew Dorn, Training Coordinator for Nuclear Fleet Security, works with nuclear sites in helping them prepare for any contingency events. He acknowledges the potential threat to nuclear power plants since the killing of bin Laden. "I think we need to be more vigilant that before. Considering the effect the Tsunami had on Japan's power plant," says Dorn, "I think we are a bigger target now than ever before after witnessing what the potential effects of a failed nuclear plant are." 

Gerald Mocello, former Army colonel and Director of Nuclear Fleet Security for Next Era Energy, considers U.S. Safety after the death of bin Laden to be debatable. "It's kind of hard to say if we're more safe or not. We shouldn't feel that al-Qaeda and terrorism are not longer a problem for us. I would be very naive to think that." Mocello says, "Certainly, you have maintain your vigilance. It's arguable weather we're more or less safe only because some would say we're safer since there is presumably no central organization to the al-Qaeda movement, but that is presumed. What we shouldn't do is assume we can now relax. We need to maintain a level of vigilance and effort now more than ever for a window of time until we see how this situation will play out."

Mocello also answered the question of how do the potential terror threats after the killing of bin Laden affect the Nuclear Security Organization. He says, "The measures that we take to protect the health and safety of the public and employees by protecting the equipment were never hinged on Osama bin Laden. They are hinged upon the nature of potential threats that could be there, which he was a part of, but only as an element. We look at overall threats and risks associated with what we do and we would maintain the level of protection that would be commensurate with that. What we do is not linked to one threat, one person, one organization. I don't see that this particular event with bin Laden in and of it self impacts the nature of our responsibility."